DAVID ERFLE – LEVELS TO WATCH WITH GOLD, GDX, GDXJ, AND HUI
David Erfle, Founder and Editor of Junior Mining Junky, joins us discuss the precious metals and the mining stocks. We start off by getting the price levels Dave is watching in Gold after a turbulent last two weeks testing key support. Next we look at key levels in GDX, GDXJ, and the HUI for a sense of opportunistic risk/reward setups in the mining stock. We wrap up with thoughts on Jerome Powell’s potential tapering announcements at upcoming Fed meetings and how the precious metals and mining stocks may respond.
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Aden Sisters: Financial Crisis Was Child’s Play Compared to Today; Gold Necessary to Survive
Stansberry Research – Aug 16, 2021
“The 2008 financial crisis was child’s play compared to today’s financial environment. This is the warning cry from two of the most recognizable faces in the commodities sector: Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, founders of the Aden Forecast. ”
“In this interview with our Daniela Cambone, they share their top sectors right now and comment on the Fed’s recent moves.”
Gold Telegraph @GoldTelegraph_ · Aug 15 on Twitter:
“Brazil’s Central Bank Purchased Over 62 Tons Of Gold In Three Months Through July 2021, Raising The Nation’s Reserves To Nearly 130 Tons. ”
“Brazil almost doubles its gold reserves in 3 months…”
https://twitter.com/GoldTelegraph_/status/1427077260167811073?s=19
What to expect from the Federal Reserve during this month’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole Wyoming
The Gold Forecast – Gary S. Wagner on Monday, August 16, 2021
The next important insights into the current thoughts and plans of the Federal Reserve will come on Wednesday, August 18, when the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting minutes will be released. However, it will be later this month at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Economic Symposium, when we will gain the freshest insight into the current thinking of Federal Reserve members.
According to the Wall Street Journal, it is widely believed that Federal Reserve officials are coming closer to a consensus of the timeline they will implement to begin tapering their asset purchases. “Federal Reserve officials are nearing an agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.”
Good finds
Thanks David. Keep us posted if you have any “good finds” as well sir.
BTW – I saw you mention recently on one of the blogs that you were getting close to where you can buy back your tax loss sales from last month soon. I’m in a similar boat in that I’ll be pass the wash period in many starting on Friday, others on Monday, and others on Tuesday, so right now I’m not as interested in finding too many new stories, but rather, buying back into the ones that were “ill-timed trades” as Dave Erfle discussed in todays interview.
With some of the tax loss sales, I’m not returning to those positions anytime soon, but with about half of them, I still like those companies fundamentally, but they had corrected down hard, and it seemed wise to take the tax loss at these lower levels and wash out a big chunk of my capital gains from earlier in the year. Now I’ll simply repurchase the companies I still want to own that were either trimmed or sold last month. This has actually been a good exercise over the last month or two for me to consolidate down (at least somewhat) the number of positions I hold, and get more concentrated in the names I really want to hold.
I did a lot of the if you could only own “ABC” or “XYZ” which one would you pick, and then did that to a number of stocks in relation to one another, and came away with a more streamlined portfolio and cut loose a number of stocks (in multiple sectors, not just Gold/Silver) that didn’t have as high of conviction level, or had too many potential challenges that could surface on the horizon. This also meant I reduced down some of the most speculative names, and focused more on quality or growth potential.
Eloro and Novo are 2 in particular that I want to get back: However, I put them into Emerita which has worked backward in the meantime. I may sit on it as I feel Emerita has a better upside near term. If any. I did the same thing with Irving and Lion One several months ago, and probably stay with Emerita. I really can’t do much of anything but watch until the miners catch some wind. I feel they are so oversold that we are close to a move but the charts are always at a crossroads. So, I guess Emerita has been the best game in town until something proves otherwise.
I’ve been nibbling at Eloro and Novo recently, but yes, Lion One that you mentioned, I took as a tax loss sale, and am waiting to buy back in. As for Emerita, I was only in for a quick trade but didn’t expect it to keep running on such a rocket ride higher so soon, but congratulate you and Doc Jones on that great trade. It’s a very interesting base metals play with significant precious metals credits for sure.
Other trades during this “non-event” period were pulling my silver stocks back to corp positions. When they begin to move again, I will take profits and buy back the worst performers first, but try to build all positions to higher levels. During this down period, Blackrock is the only one still with a profit. Not surprising, Vizsla has been hit the hardest but that tells me it might have the most upside as “shorts” always seem to go after the most obvious performers. Anyway, in order of best performance (which is really none of them) that have been reduced to a corp position are Blackrock, Aurcana, Summa, Metallic, Silver Tiger, Discovery, Vizsla. I am expecting them to perform in reverse order when reality sets in. If I were to look to see what I did with the reduction funds, probably Emerita.
I have also been rebuilding Labrador Gold for the 3rd time. Drill results keep improving. Labrador on the Appleton Fault like New Found Gold. Drill results for Labrador this morning look good.
How much did you reduced your portfolio Ex?
Even I have problems to be selective at the moment. To many well run companies are at bargain levels
I’ve shaved off about 20 companies.
$50 silver price, $2,300 gold are next, but not before this happens first – Patrick Karim
Kitco News w/ David Lin – Aug 17, 2021
Patrick Karim of Northstar & Badcharts talks gold and silver price forecasts with David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
According to Karim, silver and gold both need to hit certain price levels first before another bull rally is confirmed, and once they do, new all-time highs can be breached.
0:00 – Silver
12:16 – Silver vs. gold
13:56 – Gold
20:00 – Stock markets
Mike Konnert – They Can’t Hide The Facts Anymore – It’s All Happening Now!
I Love Prosperity w/ Jake Ducey – Aug 8, 2021
“In this video, Mike Konnert (CEO of Vizsla Silver) discusses at length gold, silver, mining stocks, inflation, what to expect from money printing with infrastructure, and where the global financial system maybe heading in the not too distant future.”
In 1979 I had 20 Krugerrands @$400 each in 1979 USD. If I’d held those until the high of $2000 in 2020 USD that would have been a very poor return compared to other investment options.
It depends on your start date and entry price. If you had bought them a few years earlier for $100-$150 then it would have been a much better return.
Also one could have picked purchasing those 20 Kruggerrands at $255 in 2001 and held to $2080 in August of 2020 and come out better over half the same period of time.
As most people invested in the precious metals point out, gold is not so much an investment as it is a store of value, protecting one’s purchasing power and wealth from the devaluations in fiat money, and ravages of inflation.
John Rubino put an interesting photo into a recent piece he put out discussing how the Wall Street Journal proved it really didn’t understand the case for Gold and how it hedges inflation relative to the devaluation of currencies, most often in relation to US Dollar, but it’s true in relation to most currencies.
__________________________________________________________________________
From John Rubino’s article:
“Two piles of dollars and coins. The one on the right is the amount that was required to buy an ounce of gold in 1920. The other, massive pile is the number of dollars it takes to buy an ounce of gold today. The upshot: gold has protected its owners’ purchasing power while the dollar has been depreciated to oblivion. That is the definition of “inflation hedge.”
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Gold-appreciation-since-1971.jpg
50 Years of No Gold Standard – Craig Hemke, David Morgan, James Anderson
WallStreetSilver – August 14, 2021
“It has been 50 years since Richard Nixon took us “temporarily” off of the Gold Standard. How has that affected our currency, our standard of living, our future? Craig Hemke, David Morgan and James Anderson join us.”
Maybe now is not the time to be investting in gold and miners, with the price near high. Silver and others are probably a better place rather than gold.
If people think that here is a good place to be nibbling at gold and gold miners, then yes, Silver tends to outperform gold to the upside (like we saw in the big move PMs had in 2020) and the smaller more highly torqued universe of Silver stocks tends to outperform the Gold stocks in more bullish runs. SIL and SILJ typically outperform the GDX and GDXJ on big uplegs, so positioning heavier in the silver stocks over the gold stocks makes sense to me.
The inverse is also true, where if people are concerned about another leg lower in the PMs, then Silver and the Silver stocks may be more at risk of outperforming to the downside, like we’ve seen the last 2 months.
Your cherry picking Ex, Terry is right.
Overall there have been many investments better than gold, I think there is a reason for 5-10% phyzz gold.
Good grief, real estate has been the place to be to make millions for the last 60years.
The funny thing about people who compare gold to stocks instead of currencies is that they ignore the extremely different risk profiles between the two.
As for cherry picking, buying gold at $400 in the 1970s in like buying stocks in the late 1990s; neither is close to ideal. $400 is about ten times the price that gold started at in that decade.
Thats true Mat, real estate /gold is apples to oranges.
But it was just a coment on which was better investment for returns.
After looking at it, where i grew up 35k bought 3 lots and 1 big house while gold would have been aprox 100 an once 350 onces, when that house and property last sold it was 1.4 million dollars, the gold would have been about 770k.
thats cdn lower mainland b.c.
property would be valued higher today.
in any case gold as we all know has its own purpose, i personally only consider it preserving purchasing power.
Now purchasing gold a few years before 100 and once gold would have paid big time, unfortunately, a person might be to wrinkly deaf and lame to enjoy the payoff. 😉
B – that was the whole point I was making, that cherry picking start dates and pricing entries can come up with a much more bullish case than the bearish case being displayed by arbitrarily picking 1979, when there were lower prices before and after that start date and price.
Also, if you read my comments I pointed out that Gold is a store of value, and against currency debasement, and not intended to be treated as an investment with risk returns on par with general stock markets or trending real estate markets (which differ wildly depend on location over that same time period). If one is looking for just what performed the best then getting in early to the cannabis stocks, biotech stocks, or cryptocurrencies destroyed all other sectors, but clearly those are even more high risk and not comparable against holding treasury notes, as they achieve totally different places in one’s portfolio. It’s the same with comparing the returns in Gold to the general markets, and that is why my posted focused on the purchasing power over the last 100 years in Gold versus Dollars, and it is true of gold against all other currencies. That was the point that seems to be escaping folks when they are making apples and oranges comparisons.
You make an interesting point Terry.
Many years ago I took Big Al’s advice and put 10% of my total net worth into Precious metals.
It has not been the return on the investment that has paid off but rather the education that came along with that decision that has really paid dividends.
My reply posted below somehow.
Uranium Price Forecast & Uranium Stocks to Watch by Jon Bey
Baby Investments – Aug 11, 2021
“Recently spoke to Jon Bey, CEO of Standard Uranium about his view on uranium, uranium stocks and his price forecast for uranium. He told me that he expects $40 uranium before the beginning of 2022, a $50 uranium price by 2023 and then eventually a $70 uranium price towards the more mature part of this uranium bull market.”
“During the full conversation, we talked a lot more about Standard Uranium specifically, and Jon helped me understand some key things about the company. ”
Going to be a sleeper……. JMO
Hi OOTB – Did you mean Uranium prices were going to be a sleeper, or Uranium stocks?
I’d agree that U308 prices have been pretty sleepy since their double bottom in the $17-$18 range back in late 2016 and again in late 2017 until present in the mid $30’s.
In contrast, the Uranium stocks have not been sleepy in the slightest, with many of them up 300%-1000%+ in the last year’s trading ranges. Now they may still fall out of bed from here and go to sleep, but the moves in the U miners have been one of the better performers in the 2nd half of 2020 going into the first quarter of 2021. They’ve been gradually getting a bit sleepier though the few months as they got a bit ahead of themselves, relative to the moves in the spot prices, and more importantly relative to the lack of longer term contract pricing (or the lack thereof).
Meaning ,,,some people are going to miss out on the opportunity…..
and few have been paying attention…..
Oh. Yes, agreed…. they are asleep at the wheel…. 🙂
Here is a good one , that mentions what Sprott is doing, which you most like already know…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nw4ilLGZP0
like to likely ….
Thanks OOTB. I like Jake Ducey’s interviews and hadn’t seen that one with Amir on UEC yet, and appreciate the heads up.
Oops looks like a misread the text under the video and it is just Jake reviewing UEC, who is a sponsor on his site, but then there was this other video referenced with Amir from earlier in the year.
Green Energy Investing Will Send Uranium Stocks Soaring – Amir Adnani
I typically enjoy getting Justin Huhn’s take on the Uranium sector and here’s his latest:
Uranium Is the Most Asymmetric Bet in The Resource Industry Today. Here’s Why” – Justin Huhn
NEWSRio – Aug 6, 2021
This guy from Generation Atomic got into some interesting related topics on nuclear energy.
Investing in Depleted Uranium, SMRs, Seawater Extraction, And Other Alternative Energy Sources
Baby Investments – Jul 27, 2021
EX………….. THANKS>……………..
Sold those coins soon after, got into real estate in the early 1980’s and never thought about gold again until last couple years. Now it’s just an aggravation. There aren’t many holding periods in those 40 years when gold was a good investment compared to other options.
The “disconnect” may be due to a potential precipitous market drop, taking miners with it.
That guy that likes to sell metals paper contracts at the worst possible price was over in London dumping early in the morning while we were sleeping…primarily Palladium….so far. The guy has a huge account and gets the worst price everyday. Possibly counseling will help him.
Stink bids on CDE and SILV WITHIN 3% of current 8/18 11am price
HL WITHIN 5% of same
BITTF, Bitteroot…it is down 20%+ last 2 days. Maybe close a bargain?
Anyone remember if Goldfinger is the one who liked this one.
I believe Goldfinger was one and/or Stateside…
foreclosure sale on gold equities has begun? Put a pitchfork in this baby, it’s fully cooked LOL
I picked up more IPT today as a handful weaklings sold it down 8%. Volume so far is about one-tenth of one percent of the float. “LOL”
any weakness in spx, magnified with the selloff in gold and producers. Need that reversed for a viable rally.
GDX vs SOX still hasn’t taken out yesterday’s low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3A%24SOX&p=W&yr=6&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90716748696&a=1003710661
AXU…, 1.64 low today
Doc mentioned once may not fall below 1.50.
Thoughts?
SILJ looks like opportunity to me…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p62330066187&a=822791467
Palantir Turns to Gold as Store of Value and Means of Payment.
50 million in 100 once bars. 9,821 viewsAug 18, 2021
Between uptrend support and two forks, K92 just might have found its low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KNT.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p74723129520&a=988774876
Me too…
😯
GDX:GLD is still bullishly above its P pivot after finally retesting its 6 year MA for the first time since the covid crash.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p00756961453
I want to ride the Pirates of the Caribbean.
a slight disconnect with equities and gold. Could be a turn in here. Let’s see what tomorrow brings as to any continuation.
Bloom may be off the rose with all the Biden crap. Media on a mission to destroy him for some reason.
They want Harris……. from the House of Orange… and Nassau Wing of the Dynasty …
Suspect the he boys and girls may just decide to take some equity profits. No point being greedy.
let’s see if we can make spx may lows. that would be nice into october. Even nicer if gold moved in opposite direction, but that may be asking for too much, likely just set to flounder
Michael Gentile: Gold stocks have highest cash flow ever, so why are prices down? (Pt. 2/2)
Kitco News w/ David Lin – Aug 16, 2021
“The gold mining sector is demonstrating excellent fundamentals, representing a complete disconnect between intrinsic value and market value,” said Michael Gentile, strategic investor.
“The industry has never been better fundamentally at a time when the least amount of investors ever have interest in the sector,” Gentile told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.
“Gentile cited the highest free cash flow the sector has seen in forty years, as well as the highest inflation-adjusted cash flow yield of any equity sector right now as being reasons for the gold stocks’ undervaluation.”
https://youtu.be/zkcG_EcoxFE